22 May

Why Indian Indexes and ETFs Rose on India’s Exit Poll Results

WRITTEN BY Mike Sonnenberg

Exit poll results

On Saturday, all the voting phases for India’s 2019 elections ended. That same evening, different media houses and research providers published their exit poll results.

Most of the exit polls expect Modi to be back in power with a clear majority for the National Democratic Alliance (or NDA) led by his BJP. Of the eight exit polls we’re considering, seven projected a clear majority for the NDA. The average of all these eight polls gives 301 seats to the NDA—well above the threshold of 272 required to form government. On the other hand, the Congress Party–led United Progressive Alliance (or UPA) is expected to win 127 seats, followed by 108 for the regional parties.

Why Indian Indexes and ETFs Rose on India’s Exit Poll Results

Market reaction

On Monday, Indian indexes and India-focused ETFs were on a roll.  The NIFTY 50 rose 3.69% on Monday while the S&P BSE Sensex gained 3.75%. The WisdomTree India Earnings ETF (EPI) gained 4.69% on May 20. The iShares India 50 ETF (INDY), which tracks the NIFTY 50, gained 4.43% while the iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA) gained 4.42%.

Why?

Markets love continuity. Moreover, exit polls reduced worries of a hung parliament destabilizing the economy. If the NDA can’t reach the 272-seat mark, there’s a possibility of Congress and other regional parties coming together to form an unstable government.

Lastly, Modi is considered to be business-friendly. During his tenure, India’s ranking in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business has improved substantially.

Will there be any surprises? We’ll have to wait for tomorrow to find out.

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