Implied volatilities in integrated energy stocks

Implied volatilities in integrated energy stocks have seen mixed trends in the second quarter. While implied volatility in ExxonMobil (XOM) has risen, it has declined in BP (BP), Chevron (CVX), and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A).

What’s the Price Forecast for XOM, CVX, RDS.A, and BP?

Sign up for Bagels & Stox, our witty take on the top market and investment news, straight to your inbox! Whether you’re a serious investor or just want to be informed, Bagels & Stox will be your favorite email.

Implied volatility in ExxonMobil has risen by 0.4 percentage points over April 1 to the current level of 16.9%. However, implied volatilities in Chevron, Shell, and BP have fallen by 0.5 percentage points, 1.7 percentage points, and 0.4 percentage points, respectively, in the same period. Implied volatilities in Chevron, Shell, and BP currently stand at 18.1%, 14.2%, and 17.1%, respectively. Furthermore, considering the absolute implied volatility levels, Chevron’s level is higher than Shell, ExxonMobil, and BP. Shell stock has risen by 1.5%. However, ExxonMobil, BP, and Chevron have fallen 5.2%, 5.1%, and 1.0%, respectively, since April 1.

Integrated energy stocks forecast for the second quarter

Given the integrated stocks’ current implied volatilities and assuming a normal distribution of prices, which is a bell curve model, and one standard deviation with a probability of 68.2%, these stocks could close within their upper price limit and lower price limit in the second quarter ending on June 28, 2019.

If we refer to the above chart, we can infer that Chevron stock, which has the largest implied volatility, could have the most significant percentage gain or loss by the end of the second quarter. Chevron could close between $129.8 and $114.2 per share. In contrast, Shell could have the smallest gain or loss. Shell could close between $66.8 and $60.3 per share. BP could close between $44.0 per share and $39.0 per share, and ExxonMobil could close between $81.2 per share and $72.0 per share.

Latest articles

15 Jul

Will Amazon Prime Day 2019 Break 2018's Record?

WRITTEN BY Jitendra Parashar

This year, Amazon extended its Prime Day to 48 hours instead of the 36-hour sale in July 2018, making the 2019 event the longest Prime Day ever.

In a series of tweets on Monday, Trump today weighed in on China’s GDP growth, which came in at a 27-year low.

15 Jul

OrganiGram's Third-Quarter Earnings

WRITTEN BY Adam Jones

On Monday morning, OrganiGram's third-quarter earnings came in as a bit of a let-down. Here's why.

Trump is reportedly planning to increase the content of US-made steel in federal projects, which would be a lifeline for US steel companies.

Huawei is preparing for “extensive layoffs” in the US, which could put the US-China trade deal on the rocks.

With Q2's Netflix earnings just around the corner, here's what you can expect from the online streaming giant and the broader streaming space.