Phillips 66 stock forecast
Phillips 66 (PSX) has fallen 10.9% in the second quarter. The stock has moved below its 50-day moving average in the quarter, which isn’t a good sign. We’ll discuss the company’s implied volatility to forecast its stock price range until June 28.
The implied volatility in Phillips 66 has risen by 1.9 percentage points since April 1, the beginning of the second quarter, to the current level of 24.4%. Phillips 66 stock has fallen 10.9% during the same period. The implied volatility in Phillips 66 and its stock price have moved in the opposite direction in the current quarter.
Considering Phillips 66’s implied volatility of 24.4% and assuming a normal distribution of prices and one standard deviation with a probability of 68.2%, Phillips 66’s stock price could close between $91.8 per share and $77.8 per share for the 42 days ending June 28.
Peers’ implied volatilities
Phillips 66’s peers have shown the same trend. The implied volatility in HollyFrontier (HFC), Delek US Holdings (DK), and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has risen by 1.2 percentage points, 1.1 percentage points, and 3.6 percentage points, respectively, since April 1. Currently, the implied volatility in HollyFrontier, Delek US Holdings, and Marathon Petroleum is 34.2%, 37.6%, and 32.9%, respectively.
If we consider the stock price movements since April 1, then HollyFrontier and Marathon Petroleum have fallen 12.8% and 13.2%, respectively. So far, the implied volatility in these refining stocks and their prices have moved inversely in the second quarter.