Hess’s implied volatility
On May 29, Hess (HES) had an implied volatility of 37.1%, which was ~10.9% higher than its 15-day average. On the same day, Apache (APA) and ConocoPhillips (COP) had implied volatilities of 44.2% and 28%, respectively.
On May 30–June 6, Hess is expected to close between $58 and $61.1 68% of the time. The forecast is based on Hess’s implied volatility of 37.1% and assumes a normal distribution of prices. On May 29, Hess closed at $58.54.
On May 23, Hess stock closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since April 4. On the same day, oil prices fell 5.7%, while the broader market fell 1.2%. The IEA reduced the oil demand growth forecast for 2019, which dragged oil prices on the same day.
In the last few trading sessions, Hess’s stock price has struggled near the 200-day moving average level. On May 29, Hess closed 7.5%, 6.9%, 0.1%, and 1.4% below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, respectively.
On the same day, Hess’s 50-day moving average was 5.9% higher than its 200-day moving average. In technical terms, the crossover is called a “golden cross.” Usually, a golden cross is followed by an upswing in prices.
On May 29, natural gas’s 50-day moving average was 14.9% lower than its 200-day moving average. On the same day, US crude oil’s 50-day moving average was 2.9% higher than its 200-day moving average. In the last quarter, Hess operated with a production mix of ~54.8% in oil and 31.2% in natural gas.