Refining stocks’ mixed trend
Moving averages in the second quarter
Valero Energy’s 50-day moving average has risen in the second quarter due to the rise in its stock price. The increase has resulted in a narrowing of the gap between Valero Energy’s 50-day moving average and 200-day moving average. Valero Energy’s 50-day moving average, which was 12.5% below its 200-day moving average on April 1, is 6.5% below its 200-day moving average.
Phillips 66’s 200-day moving average has fallen steeply compared to the fall in its 50-day moving average. Phillips 66’s 50-day moving average is 5.8% below its 200-day moving average—compared to 7.3% at the beginning of the quarter.
Marathon Petroleum and Holly Frontier’s 50-day moving averages have fallen steeply, which expanded the gap between their moving averages. HollyFrontier saw the largest widening in the gap. Currently, HollyFrontier’s 50-day moving average is 16.9% below its 200-day moving average. Marathon Petroleum’s 50-day moving average is 12.4% below its 200-day moving average.
When the gap is wider, it’s hard for these stocks’ 50-day moving averages to crossover their 200-day moving averages, which isn’t a favorable sign. Phillips 66’s 50-day moving average is the closest to its 200-day moving average. If Phillips 66 stock rises, then its 50-day moving average could rise and cross above its 200-day moving average. Marathon Petroleum, Holly Frontier, and Valero Energy need a relatively steeper uprun to crossover. Higher refining cracks, wider oil spreads, and stronger markets are a few of the factors that could have a positive impact on these stocks.