Q4 2018 estimated and actual performance

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) is slated to release its Q1 2019 results on May 2. Before we review the Q1 2019 estimates, let’s recap Shell’s Q4 2018 performance compared to forecasts.

Will Shell’s Q1 Earnings Meet Wall Street Estimates?

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In Q4 2018, Shell’s revenues—at $102.2 billion—exceeded Wall Street analyst estimates. Also in the quarter, Shell’s adjusted EPS stood at $1.4, compared to its estimated EPS of $1.3, beating analysts’ estimate. Also, Shell’s fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share have risen 15% year-over-year.

Shell’s adjusted earnings of $5.8 billion in Q4 2018 rose 32% over Q4 2017 due to an across-the-board rise in earnings in the upstream, downstream, and integrated gas segments year-over-year.

Shell’s Q1 2019 estimates

Shell is expected to post EPS of $1.09 in Q1 2019, around 18% lower than its Q1 2018 adjusted EPS. Plus, Shell’s Q1 2019 estimated EPS are about 21% lower than its Q4 2018 adjusted EPS. Shell’s revenues are expected to be around $90.4 billion in Q1 2019, about 1% higher than its Q1 2018 revenues.

Shell’s Upstream earnings are likely to be lower due to lower oil prices in Q1 2019 than in Q1 2018. Also, downstream earnings could fall due to weaker refining cracks year-over-year.

Shell’s (RDS.A) peers ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and BP (BP) are expected to post 36%, 32%, and 15% lower year-over-year EPS in the first quarter. Also, Total’s (TOT) earnings are expected to fall 12% year-over-year in the first quarter. Plus, Suncor Energy (SU) and Petrobras’s (PBR) earnings are expected to fall 14% and 31% year-over-year, respectively.

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