17 Apr

Will Natural Gas Recover from Its Two-Month Low?

WRITTEN BY Rabindra Samanta

Natural gas prices

On April 16, natural gas May futures fell 0.8% and settled at $2.57 per MMBtu (million British thermal units)—the lowest closing level for active natural gas futures since February 7.

Will Natural Gas Recover from Its Two-Month Low?

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Natural gas prices recover

In the trailing week, natural gas prices fell 4.7%. The outage at Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass liquefied natural gas export terminal in Louisiana is over. However, the weather forecast suggests less demand, which might have dragged natural gas prices. Based on the weather forecast on April 16, the total degree days for the next two weeks declined from 118 on April 15 to 111, according to Refinitiv data. The expected total degree days are below the level of 178 last year. If the weather pattern doesn’t change, it might be difficult for natural gas to recover from those levels.

Moving averages

On April 16, the natural gas active futures were 5.2%, 5.8%, 19.3%, and 17.8% below their 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, respectively. Prices below these key moving averages indicate weakness in natural gas.

Natural gas–weighted stocks like Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Antero Resources (AR), and Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) might be sensitive to any changes in natural gas prices. Broader market indexes, like the S&P 500 Index (SPY), will likely be impacted by any changes in natural gas prices.

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