Implied volatility

In this part, we’ll discuss Valero Energy’s (VLO) stock price forecast range for 22 days before its earnings. The stock price range forecast is based on the company’s current implied volatility. Valero Energy is expected to post its first-quarter earnings on April 25.

Valero Energy’s Stock Price Forecast Range until Its Q1 Earnings

The implied volatility in Valero Energy has risen from 24.6% on March 1 to the current level of 26.9%. Valero Energy’s stock price has risen 1.7% during the same period.

Estimated price range

Valero Energy’s stock price range is estimated considering its implied volatility of 26.9%. The stock price range assumes a normal distribution of prices and a standard deviation of one, which suggests a probability of 68.2%. Valero Energy’s stock price could close between $89.8 per share and $78.7 per share in the next 22 calendar days ending on April 25.

Volatility in Valero Energy’s peers

The implied volatility in Delek US Holdings (DK) and HollyFrontier (HFC) has risen by 1.8 percentage points and 3.2 percentage points, respectively, since March 1. Currently, the implied volatility in Delek US Holdings and HollyFrontier is 37.5% and 34.1%, respectively. The implied volatility in Phillips 66 (PSX) has risen by 3.4 percentage points since March 1 to the current level of 23.4%.

If we consider the prices of these stocks, then Phillips 66 and HollyFrontier’s stock prices have fallen 2.5% and 5.6%, respectively, since March 1. Delek US Holdings stock has risen 1.7% during the same period. Phillips 66 and HollyFrontier’s stock prices and implied volatilities have moved inversely in the past month.

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