Implied volatility in ExxonMobil
ExxonMobil (XOM) posted its first-quarter earnings on April 26, which missed analysts’ estimates. The stock reacted negatively to the news. In this part, we’ll discuss how ExxonMobil stock could trend in the next seven days ending May 3. We’ll also discuss the changes in ExxonMobil’s implied volatility on its earnings release day.
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ExxonMobil reported its first-quarter earnings on April 26. The implied volatility in ExxonMobil fell by 2.4 percentage points compared to the previous day to 14.5% on April 26. The implied volatility was lower than ExxonMobil’s 30-day average implied volatility at 16.4%. On the same day, ExxonMobil’s stock price fell 2.1%.
Expected price range
Considering ExxonMobil’s implied volatility of 14.5% and assuming a normal distribution of prices and standard deviation of one with a probability of 68.2%, ExxonMobil’s stock price could close between $82.1 and $78.9 per share in the seven days ending May 3.
Peers’ implied volatility
Like ExxonMobil, the implied volatility in Chevron (CVX) fell by 2.1 percentage points over the previous day to 18.9% on April 26. The implied volatility in Total (TOT) and Petrobras (PBR) fell by 1.6 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, to 16.5% and 36.3%, respectively, on April 26.
If we consider these companies’ stock performance on April 26, then Chevron, Total, and Petrobras fell 0.7%, 1.3%, and 0.6%, respectively.