ExxonMobil’s implied gains
ExxonMobil stock has 4% implied gains based on its mean target price. Suncor, Total, and Shell have higher implied gains of 27%, 23%, and 22%, respectively. Chevron and BP have implied gains of 16% and 10%, respectively.
ExxonMobil stock has risen 2% in the past year due to the higher stock price in the first quarter. In the past year, analysts’ mean target price on ExxonMobil stock has fallen 2% to $84.6. ExxonMobil is the only stock that saw its mean target price fall in the past year.
ExxonMobil’s earnings estimate for 2019
Analysts expect ExxonMobil’s earnings to fall 11% in 2019. The company could see weaker upstream realizations due to lower crude oil prices. Most analysts lowered their oil price estimate for 2019 due to the fear of a supply glut in the global oil market. Although the concerns are waning with OPEC’s supply cuts, they haven’t fully vanished.
However, ExxonMobil has a strong upstream portfolio, which is expected to drive the company’s long-term growth. ExxonMobil has a healthy upstream projects pipeline. The company’s main projects are expected to be online by 2025, which will likely contribute ~50% to ExxonMobil’s upstream earnings. ExxonMobil expects its upstream earnings to triple by 2025—assuming oil prices of $60 per barrel.
ExxonMobil has an advantaged downstream portfolio with many ongoing projects. The company has a fully integrated model, which could optimize the value out of every molecule processed in its supply chain.