Analysts’ earnings expectations
Now that we’ve considered analysts’ revenue estimates for senior gold miners (GDX), in this article, let’s take a look at analysts’ EBITDA estimates.
In addition to the increase analysts expect in Barrick Gold’s (GOLD) revenue in the first quarter of 2019, they also expect its EBITDA to rise 6% YoY (year-over-year) to $861 million.
Analysts expect Newmont Mining’s (NEM) EBITDA to fall 5.4% YoY to $609 million in the first quarter of 2019. The company expects to see a fall in production and a rise in costs YoY, driving its EBITDA to fall more quickly than its revenue.
Kinross Gold and Goldcorp
In contrast to other miners, the expected fall in Kinross Gold’s (KGC) EBITDA in the first quarter of 2019 is much higher. Analysts expect KGC’s EBITDA to fall 31.2% YoY to $255 million in the first quarter. As we discussed in the previous article, Kinross expects its first quarter to be weaker operationally. This weakness will most likely drive the significant fall in its EBITDA.
Analysts expect Goldcorp (GG) to see a rise of 2.6% YoY in its EBITDA to $352 million in the first quarter of 2019, likely due to weaker comparables YoY.