On February 26, Apache’s (APA) implied volatility was 39.3%, which was ~0.6% higher than its 15-day average. On the same day, Noble Energy (NBL) and Concho Resources (CXO) had implied volatilities of 38.4% and 32.1%, respectively.
On February 27–March 6, Apache should close between $31.42 and $34.76 68.0% of the time. The forecast is based on the company’s implied volatility of 39.3% and assumes a normal distribution of prices. On February 26, Apache closed at $33.09. The lower limit of our price forecast could be important for Apache on February 28. On February 27, Apache is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter earnings results after the market closes.
Apache’ 50-day moving average of $30.69 will likely be an important level to watch going forward. On February 12, Apache moved above its 50-day moving average. The price level is close to the lower limit of our forecast.
The next important support level for Apache stock will likely be its 100-day moving average of $34.92. On February 26, Apache closed 1.9% above its 20-day moving average, respectively.
On the same day, the stock’s 50-day moving average was 22.3% below its 200-day moving average. In technical terms, the crossover is called a “death cross.” Usually, a death cross is followed by more weakness. On February 26, US crude oil’s 50-day moving average was 18.4% lower than its 200-day moving average. On the same day, natural gas’s 50-day moving average was 1.7% less than its 200-day moving average. Apache operates with a production mix of ~48.3% and 36.3% in oil and natural gas, respectively.