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Pioneer Natural Resources: Key Price Points in February

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Feb. 20 2019, Updated 8:03 a.m. ET

Implied volatility

On February 19, Pioneer Natural Resources’ (PXD) implied volatility was 28.8%, which is ~19.6% lower than its 15-day average. On the same day, Noble Energy (NBL) and Concho Resources (CXO) had implied volatilities of 40.2% and 34.6%, respectively.

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Price forecast

On February 20–28, Pioneer Natural Resources should close between $139.35 and $151.77 68.0% of the time. The forecast is based on the company’s implied volatility of 28.8% and assumes a normal distribution of prices. On February 19, Pioneer Natural Resources closed at $145.5. Analysts’ review on Pioneer Natural Resources after its quarterly results might keep the stock near the lower limit of our price forecast in February.

Moving averages

Pioneer Natural Resources’ 50-day moving average of $138.9 will likely be an important level to watch going forward. On February 12, Pioneer Natural Resources moved above its 50-day moving average. The price level is close to the lower limit of our forecast.

The next important support level for Pioneer Natural Resources stock will likely be its 20-day moving average of $141.2. On February 19, Pioneer Natural Resources closed 3.1% and 13.3% below its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, respectively.

On the same day, the stock’s 50-day moving average was 17.3% below its 200-day moving average. In technical terms, the crossover is called a “death cross.” Usually, a death cross is followed by more weakness. On February 19, natural gas’s 50-day moving average was 3.8% higher than its 200-day moving average. On the same day, US crude oil’s 50-day moving average was 19.5% lower than its 200-day moving average.

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