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Will ExxonMobil Impress the Market with Its Q4 Results?

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Third-quarter estimated and actual performances

ExxonMobil (XOM) is expected to post its fourth-quarter results on February 1, 2019. Before we proceed with a look at its fourth-quarter estimates, let’s take a look back at its third-quarter performance.

In the third quarter of 2018, ExxonMobil’s revenue of $76.6 billion surpassed analysts’ consensus estimate by ~4%. Its third-quarter EPS stood at $1.46, exceeding analysts’ estimate of $1.23 by ~18%. If we consider the past three years, these are ExxonMobil’s highest quarterly EPS since the third quarter of 2015. In the third quarter, the company’s EPS were also 51% higher than its adjusted EPS in the third quarter of 2017.

ExxonMobil reported a rise in its earnings from $3.97 billion in the third quarter of 2017 to $6.24 billion in the third quarter of 2018. The rise was the result of increases in its Upstream and Downstream earnings partially offset by a fall in its Chemical earnings YoY (year-over-year).

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ExxonMobil’s fourth-quarter estimates

Analysts expect ExxonMobil to post EPS of $1.2 in the fourth quarter, 32% higher than its adjusted EPS in the fourth quarter of 2017 but 21% lower than its adjusted EPS in the third quarter of 2018. The company’s revenue is expected to be ~$79.2 billion in the fourth quarter, a rise of ~19% YoY.

In the quarter, though oil prices fell, the quarterly average was up YoY, which likely resulted in higher Upstream realizations and earnings for the company in the period. However, its Downstream earnings could be lower due to weaker YoY refining cracks in the quarter.

ExxonMobil’s peers Chevron (CVX), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), and BP (BP) are expected to post EPS rises of 178%, 21%, and 25% YoY, respectively, in the fourth quarter. Total’s (TOT) earnings are also expected to rise 31% YoY in the quarter. However, Suncor Energy (SU) and Petrobras (PBR) are expected to see EPS falls of 10% and 1% YoY, respectively, in the same period.

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