Analysts’ estimate

Analysts expect Citigroup (C) to report total revenues of $17.8 billion, which implies an increase of 3.1% YoY (year-over-year). Citigroup’s management expects the revenues to increase on a YoY basis during the fourth quarter despite the expected sequential slowdown in the ICG (Institutional Clients Group), equity, and fixed income market revenues.

Analysts expect JPMorgan Chase’s (JPM) revenues to increase 6.7% during the fourth quarter. Bank of America’s (BAC) revenues are expected to increase 4.6%. However, Wells Fargo’s (WFC) revenues are expected to remain soft.

Citigroup’s Revenues Could Improve in the Fourth Quarter

Growth drivers

Citigroup’s fourth-quarter revenues are expected to benefit from growth in loans and deposits and rate spreads. Latin America is expected to sustain the momentum with projected growth in mortgage, commercial, and card loans and increased deposits.

The banking revenues in the ICG segment are projected to improve on a YoY basis due to continued momentum in Treasury and Trade Solutions, Private Bank, Securities Services, and Corporate Lending. The investment banking revenues are expected to improve in the fourth quarter on a sequential and YoY basis due to the backlogs. Lower market activity will likely impact the underwriting fees and the overall segment.

Citigroup’s Retail Banking revenues, excluding mortgages and retail services in the North America Consumer Banking segment, are expected to improve due to growth in deposit spreads and investments. Mortgage revenues could continue to slide, which reflects lower origination activity and higher funding costs.

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