EIA Data: Will Oil Bulls Lose Hope for Another Multiyear High?



EIA data

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported a rise of 8 MMbbls (million barrels) in US crude oil inventories to 404 MMbbls for the week ended September 28. A Reuters poll indicated a rise of ~1.98 MMbbls. Today at 10:23 EST, US crude oil November futures were $74.93, down $0.30 from its last closing price.

The rise in US crude oil inventories left US crude oil inventories at their five-year average, and the inventories spread contracted 2 percentage points, a concern for oil bulls. On October 1, US crude oil November futures settled at $75.30 per barrel, the highest closing for US crude oil active futures since November 11, 2014, based on the closing prices.

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However, the EIA reported a fall of 0.5 MMbbls in gasoline inventories compared to a Reuters poll for a rise of ~1.3 MMbbls. With that fall, gasoline inventories will be 7% above their five-year average, which was 1 percentage point less than the previous week. The above graph shows the inventories spread for both US crude oil and gasoline inventories. The inventories spread is the difference between inventories and their five-year average.

Oil prices and US equity indexes

US equity indexes such as the S&P 500 Index (SPY), the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DIA), and the S&P Mid-Cap 400 (IVOO) could be influenced by changes in oil prices.

The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), which includes energy stocks sensitive to oil, could react to any changes in oil prices.


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