Refining stocks’ moving averages in the third quarter
In the third quarter so far, Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Valero Energy (VLO), Andeavor (ANDV), and Phillips 66 (PSX) have seen stock price rises. We discussed the stocks’ uptrends in the previous article. Now let’s delve into their moving average trends.
Refining stocks’ moving averages have contracted so far in the third quarter. ANDV’s 50-day moving average, which stood 21% above its 200-day moving average on July 2, now stands 17% above its 200-day moving average. The gap between VLO’s daily moving averages has narrowed from 22% to 15% in the same period. MPC’s and PSX’s daily moving average gaps have also narrowed. Currently, MPC’s and PSX’s 50-day moving averages stand 5% and 10% above their respective 200-day moving averages.
Despite the narrowing of the gaps, these stocks’ 50-day moving averages continue to stand above their 200-day moving averages—a technically favorable sign. Also, with such wide gaps (10% and above) between the daily moving averages of ANDV, VLO, and PSX, fears of their 50-day moving averages breaking below their 200-day moving averages in the immediate future are almost nonexistent.
Usually, if a stock’s 50-day moving average breaks below its 200-day moving average, it’s considered a technically bearish sign. These stocks’ current positions imply that they’re quite far from the bearish zone.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closely resembles the S&P 500 Index. If we consider SPY’s moving average trend in the third quarter, then the gap between its 50-day moving average and 200-day moving average has expanded. SPY’s 50-day moving average, which stood 1.9% above its 200-day moving average on July 2, now stands 2.8% above its 200-day moving average.
Move on to the next article to look at the price forecasts for MPC, ANDV, VLO, and PSX until the end of the third quarter.