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Forecasting ConocoPhillips’s Stock Price Up until July 6

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ConocoPhillips’s implied volatility

Due to its stock price rising ~2.7% last week, ConocoPhillips (COP) implied volatility fell from ~26.6% to ~26.4%, marginally lower than its implied volatility of ~26.5% on March 30. Based on ConocoPhillips’s implied volatility, assuming a normal price distribution, 365 days in a year, and standard deviation of one, its stock could stay between $67.08 and $72.16 for 68% of the time up until July 6. On June 29, COP closed at $69.62.

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Peers’ price forecasts

As of June 29, peer Marathon Oil (MRO) had implied volatility of ~40.13%, meaning MRO could close between $19.70 and $22.02 up until July 6. On June 29, MRO closed at $20.86. Like ConocoPhillips, Marathon has both international and US operations but focuses more on unconventional US resources.

As of June 29, the SPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) had implied volatility of ~29.3%, meaning XOP could close between $41.31 and $44.81 up until July 6. On June 29, XOP closed at $43.06. XOP represents an index of stocks across the energy industry and has a ~78% exposure to the oil and gas exploration and production industry.

On June 29, COP peers California Resources (CRC) and Southwestern Energy (SWN) had implied volatility of ~83.87% and ~50.87%, respectively, meaning 68% of the time, they could close at $40.16–$50.72 and $4.93–$5.67, respectively, up until July 6.

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