ConocoPhillips’s implied volatility
Due to its stock price rising ~2.7% last week, ConocoPhillips (COP) implied volatility fell from ~26.6% to ~26.4%, marginally lower than its implied volatility of ~26.5% on March 30. Based on ConocoPhillips’s implied volatility, assuming a normal price distribution, 365 days in a year, and standard deviation of one, its stock could stay between $67.08 and $72.16 for 68% of the time up until July 6. On June 29, COP closed at $69.62.
Peers’ price forecasts
As of June 29, peer Marathon Oil (MRO) had implied volatility of ~40.13%, meaning MRO could close between $19.70 and $22.02 up until July 6. On June 29, MRO closed at $20.86. Like ConocoPhillips, Marathon has both international and US operations but focuses more on unconventional US resources.
As of June 29, the SPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) had implied volatility of ~29.3%, meaning XOP could close between $41.31 and $44.81 up until July 6. On June 29, XOP closed at $43.06. XOP represents an index of stocks across the energy industry and has a ~78% exposure to the oil and gas exploration and production industry.
On June 29, COP peers California Resources (CRC) and Southwestern Energy (SWN) had implied volatility of ~83.87% and ~50.87%, respectively, meaning 68% of the time, they could close at $40.16–$50.72 and $4.93–$5.67, respectively, up until July 6.