What to Expect from Oracle’s Fiscal Q4 2018 Results

Fiscal fourth-quarter expectations

In this earnings season, Oracle (ORCL) is scheduled to announce its fiscal fourth-quarter results on June 19. Estimize, a crowdsourced financial estimate platform, expects the company to report revenue and EPS of $11.2 billion and $0.94, respectively, in the quarter.

What to Expect from Oracle’s Fiscal Q4 2018 Results

Oracle’s trend of meeting or exceeding analysts’ expectations

The chart above shows how many times the company’s quarterly results have met, missed, or exceeded analysts’ expectations. In the last 14 quarters, Oracle has missed analysts’ revenue expectations only six times. On the EPS front, Oracle’s performance has improved, as it has missed estimates only three times in the last 14 quarters. In fact, Oracle’s quarterly results have exceeded the consensus estimates for the past five quarters.

With each passing quarter, Oracle’s cloud revenue has continued its upward trajectory. In the fiscal third quarter, Oracle’s SaaS (software-as-a-service) revenue grew 33% to $1.2 billion, while its PaaS (platform-as-a-service) and IaaS (infrastructure-as-a-service) revenue rose 24.0% to $416.0 million.

On a standalone basis, this growth looks impressive. However, compared to its peers’ cloud revenue growth, Oracle’s doesn’t look so impressive. Despite having a small base, Oracle’s cloud revenue growth was only 24%. Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT), which make up the top one and two positions, respectively, in the overall cloud space, saw revenue growth of 44% and 98%, respectively. IBM (IBM), Google (GOOG), and Alibaba (BABA) rounded out the list of top five players with revenue rises of 19%, 120%, and 118%, respectively.

In the fiscal fourth quarter, Oracle expects its overall cloud revenue, including SaaS, PaaS, and IaaS, to rise in the range of 19%–23%.