What’s ExxonMobil’s Stock Price Forecast after 1Q18 Earnings?

Implied volatility in ExxonMobil

In this part of the series, we’ll look at changes in ExxonMobil’s (XOM) implied volatility. We’ll also estimate ExxonMobil’s stock price range for the seven-day period ending May 4.

ExxonMobil (XOM) reported earnings on April 27. On the day, implied volatility in XOM dropped by 4.1 percentage points to 15.7% compared to the previous day. This implied volatility on April 27 was lower than the 30-day average implied volatility, which stood at 19.5%. On the same day, ExxonMobil’s stock price fell 3.8%.

What’s ExxonMobil’s Stock Price Forecast after 1Q18 Earnings?

Expected price range for ExxonMobil stock for the 7-day period ending May 4

Considering ExxonMobil’s implied volatility of 15.7% and assuming a normal distribution of prices (bell curve model) and standard deviation of one (with a probability of 68.2%), ExxonMobil stock could close between $79.5 and $76.1 per share in the seven-day period ending May 4.

Peers’ implied volatility

Like ExxonMobil, implied volatility in Statoil (STO) fell by 0.3 percentage points over the previous day to 22.2% on April 27. Also, implied volatilities in Total (TOT) and Petrobras (PBR) fell 1.3 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points, respectively, to 16.1% and 35.4%, respectively, on April 27. In terms of stock price change, STO and TOT fell 0.1% and 0.7%, respectively, but PBR rose 0.6% on the same day.

The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) saw a fall in its implied volatility by 0.7 percentage points to 13.7% on April 27. Also, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) witnessed a fall in its implied volatility by 1.3 percentage points to 11.8% on the day. However, on April 27, while SPY rose 0.1%, DIA fell 0.1%.