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What Are the Odds of SWN Beating Its 4Q17 Earnings Estimates?

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Odds of beating earnings

In the last four quarters, Southwestern Energy (SWN) has beaten the consensus EPS (earnings per share) estimate only once—in 1Q17.

Thus, in the last four quarters, SWN has beaten the consensus EPS estimate 25% of the time and missed the consensus EPS estimate 75% of the time.

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What was SWN’s stock price reaction to its 3Q17 earnings?

Southwestern Energy announced its 3Q17 earnings after the market closed on October 26, 2017. In 3Q17, Southwestern Energy reported revenue of ~$737 million, lower than Wall Street analysts’ consensus estimate of ~$777 million. SWN also missed analysts’ consensus EPS estimate by $0.01 in the quarter. SWN reported an adjusted profit of $0.06, just missing Wall Street analysts’ consensus of $0.07.

Following SWN’s earnings release, its worse-than-expected earnings saw its stock price rise from $5.17 to $6.67 in two weeks.

Since its 3Q17 earnings, Southwestern Energy has underperformed the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), which represents an index of stocks across the energy sector. Since Southwestern Energy’s 3Q17 earnings release, it has fallen ~32%, whereas XLE has fallen close to half a percentage point.

SWN underperformed XLE in 2017. In the year, SWN fell ~48%, whereas XLE fell ~3%. To learn more about XLE’s best and worst upstream stock performers in 2017, check out Market Realist’s The Best and Worst Energy Stocks of XLE in 2017.

Other oil and gas producers

In the last four quarters, other upstream players ConocoPhillips (COP), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), and Murphy Oil (MUR) have beaten earnings expectations ~50%, ~100%, and ~75% of the time, respectively.

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