Southwestern Energy’s implied volatility

As of December 29, 2017, Southwestern Energy (SWN) had an implied volatility of ~58.3%, which is higher than its implied volatility of ~53.1% at the end of 3Q17. Since the beginning of 3Q17, Southwestern Energy’s stock price has fallen ~9%. The fall in Southwestern Energy’s price has increased its implied volatility since the beginning of 3Q17.

Southwestern Energy’s Possible Trading Range Forecast

Price range forecast

Based on Southwestern Energy’s implied volatility of ~58.3%, assuming a normal distribution of prices, 365 days in a year, and a standard deviation of one, Southwestern Energy stock is expected to close between $6.03 and $5.13 in the next seven calendar days. Its stock will stay in this range 68% of the time. On December 29, Southwestern Energy’s stock price closed at $5.58.

Peers’ price range forecasts

As of December 29, 2017, Occidental Petroleum (OXY) has an implied volatility of ~17.6%, which means that its stock is expected to close between $75.46 and $71.86 in the next seven calendar days. On December 29, Occidental Petroleum’s stock price closed at $73.66.

As of December 29, 2017, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) has an implied volatility of ~10.7%. DIA is expected to close between $251.06 and $243.70 in the next seven calendar days. On December 29, DIA’s price closed at $247.38.

There’s a 68% probability that these stocks will close in their range for the given period.

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