Will Global Crude Oil Supply Surpass Demand in 2018?

Global crude oil supply in 2016 and 2017 

The EIA released its monthly STEO (Short-Term Energy Outlook) report on December 12, 2017. The global crude oil supply averaged 97.43 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in 1H17, according to the EIA. It was 0.67 MMbpd or 0.7% more than 1H16.

The global crude oil supply is expected to average 98.49 MMbpd in 2H17, which is 0.78 MMbpd or 0.8% more than 2H16. Any rise in global supplies is bearish for oil (BNO) (DWT) prices.

Will Global Crude Oil Supply Surpass Demand in 2018?

Global crude oil demand in 2016 and 2017 

Global crude oil demand averaged 97.82 MMbpd in 1H17, according to the EIA. It was 1.64 MMbpd or 1.7% more than the same period in 2016. Demand is expected to average 98.85 MMbpd in 2H17, which is 1.13 MMbpd or 1.2% more than 2H16. Any rise in global demand is bullish for oil (BNO) (UWT) prices. 

Remember, higher oil (USO) prices have a positive impact on energy producers’ (IEZ) (XOP) earnings, including companies like Shell (RDS.A), Rosneft, Northern Oil & Gas (NOG), and Stone Energy (SGY).

Global crude oil supply and demand

Global crude oil demand outpaced supply in 2017, according to the EIA. Ongoing production cuts, improving global crude oil demand, a fall in US and OECD crude oil inventoriessupply outages in Iraq and Libya, and economic uncertainty in Venezuela helped tighten global oil supplies. 

Impact 

The extension of production cuts until December 2018 will help oil prices in 2018. However, the EIA expects that global oil supplies will surpass demand by 0.35 MMbpd in 4Q18. The rise in crude oil output from the US, Canada, and Brazil will add to global supplies. It would pressure oil (UCO) prices.

Read US Natural Gas Futures Could Maintain Bearish Momentum and Crude Oil Prices Could End 2017 on a High Note for updates on natural gas and oil.