EndoPredict demand trends
In fiscal 1Q18, Myriad Genetics’ (MYGN) EndoPredict reported a volume run rate in the US, which was consistent with the product’s market share of 2.0%. The product also reported revenues close to $1.9 million for 12.0% growth on a year-over-year (or YoY) basis.
This was the first quarter of meaningful revenue contribution from the EndoPredict product in the US. In the event of further expansion in reimbursements, EndoPredict can report an annual revenue run rate of $10.0 million from the US market.
Myriad Genetics (MYGN) estimated the total addressable market size of this next-generation RNA expression test to be close to $0.9 billion. The annual market opportunity for this test across the US, Europe, and Canada is estimated to be ~$0.6 billion.
Myriad Genetics’ EndoPredict is used to help predict the probability of tumor metastases in breast cancer patients, thereby aiding in determining optimal chemotherapy and anti-hormonal therapy. The test is also utilized for identifying the aggressiveness of breast cancer.
In 13 published clinical studies involving 2,200 patients, EndoPredict demonstrated high accuracy in predicting recurrence in node positive and node negative, ER+, and HER2- breast cancer patients.
Myriad Genetics comprises ~0.34% of the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology ETF’s (IBB) total portfolio holdings.
International market trends
The chart above shows the key catalysts in international markets that could drive increased adoption of the EndoPredict test in fiscal 2018. EndoPredict can play a key role in differentiating Myriad Genetics from molecular diagnostic players such as Novartis (NVS), Roche Holdings (RHHBY), and Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX).
In fiscal 1Q18, EndoPredict revenues from European markets remained flat on a YoY basis mostly due to delays in reimbursement approvals in France.