17 Nov

Is a Further Fall in Oil Inevitable?

WRITTEN BY Rabindra Samanta

US crude oil

On November 16, 2017, US crude oil (USO) (USL) January futures fell 0.3% and closed at $55.35 per barrel.

Is a Further Fall in Oil Inevitable?

In the week ended November 10, 2017, US crude oil production reached ~9.64 million barrels per day—the highest weekly data since 1983. The oil rig count rose by nine during the same week. A renewed uptrend in the oil rig count could pose a downside risk for oil prices.

Between November 9 and November 16, 2017, US crude oil active futures fell 3.6%. Over this time period, both the S&P 500 Index (SPY) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DIA) were flat.

Natural gas

On November 16, 2017, natural gas (UNG) active futures fell 0.9% and closed at $3.05 per MMBtu (million British thermal units). However, on the same day, natural gas inventories fell by 18 Bcf (billion cubic feet), while the market expected a fall of 15 Bcf.

Concerns about natural gas supplies outstripping demand could be hitting natural gas prices. Between November 9 and November 16, natural gas active futures fell 4.6%.

In the next part of this series (below), we’ll assess the performance of SPY and DIA in the context of energy prices.

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