15 Nov

Crude Oil: Is the Rally Over?

WRITTEN BY Rabindra Samanta

US crude oil

On November 14, 2017, US crude oil (USO) (OIIL) December futures fell 1.9% and closed at $55.7 per barrel.

Crude Oil: Is the Rally Over?

IEA’s forecast

The IEA’s (International Energy Agency) Oil Market Report was released on November 14, 2017. It forecast that oil demand growth could fall by 0.1 MMbpd (million barrels per day) from its last forecast for 2017 and 2018. The report also pointed to an increase in non-OPEC oil supply of 0.7 MMbpd in 2017 and double that amount in 2018. US crude oil production is already at its peak. These factors could add to oil’s (UCO) (BNO) recent weakness.

On November 7–14, 2017, US crude oil active futures fell 2.6%. During this period, the S&P 500 Index (SPY) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DIA) fell 0.5% and 0.6%. Subdued oil prices can contribute to weakness in equity indexes.

Moving averages

On November 14, 2017, US crude oil active futures were 2.7%, 7.5%, 12.7%, and 12.3% above their 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, respectively—these are still bullish technical signs. The 50-day moving average was 4.5% above the 200-day moving average.

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