ConocoPhillips’s implied volatility
As of September 1, 2017, ConocoPhillips (COP) had implied volatility of ~22.6%, which is slightly higher than its implied volatility of ~21.4% on August 25, 2017.
COP’s price forecast
Based on ConocoPhillips’s implied volatility of ~22.6%, assuming a normal distribution of prices, 365 days in a year, and standard deviation of one, its stock is expected to close between $45.62 and $42.86 in the next seven calendar days. ConocoPhillips’s stock will stay in this range 68% of the time. Implied volatility does not forecast stock’s future direction.
As of September 1, 2017, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) had implied volatility of 7.7%, which is much lower than its August 2017 high of 21.5%.
Currently, COP is trading below its 200-day moving average but above its 50-day moving average. In fact, COP crossed above its 50-day moving average on Friday, September 1, 2017. That day, COP’s stock price closed at $44.24, whereas its 200-day and 50-day moving averages stood at $46.46 and $43.87, respectively. However, COP’s 50-day moving average stands below its 200-day moving average, which is a bearish sign for the stock.
In comparison, peers California Resources (CRC), Devon Energy (DVN), and Southwestern Energy (SWN) have implied volatility of ~80.9%, ~30.8%, and ~52.6%. CRC’s and DVN’s implied volatility has risen since August 25, 2017, when their volatility stood at ~79.2% and ~30.4%, respectively. The First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index ETF invests in natural gas producers, whereas the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) invests at least 95% of its total assets in oil and gas companies.