Forecasting Schlumberger’s Stock Price



Schlumberger’s implied volatility in context

On July 3, 2017, Schlumberger’ (SLB) implied volatility was ~22%. The company’s 1Q17 earnings were announced on April 21, 2017. Since then, its implied volatility has increased marginally. Implied volatility reflects a stock’s potential movement as viewed by investors.

Article continues below advertisement

Peer comparison

Schlumberger’s implied volatility in the past and now

On January 20, 2016, Schlumberger’s implied volatility was at its highest in three years at ~43%. Schlumberger’s financial results for 2016 were released the following day. Schlumberger’s stock price fell 3% on January 20. Its implied volatility subsided gradually and is currently a bit higher than its past-three-year average of 24%. Earlier, in August 2015, Schlumberger’s implied volatility spiked abruptly following an agreement to acquire Cameron International but came down soon after that.

Since early May 2017, Schlumberger’s implied volatility has risen from ~19% to ~22%, despite crude oil’s volatility decreasing. Schlumberger makes up 6.8% of the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE). VDE has fallen 12% since March 31, 2017, whereas Schlumberger has fallen 14%.

Stock price forecast for Schlumberger

In view of Schlumberger’ implied volatility and assuming a normal distribution of stock prices, a standard deviation of one, and a probability of 68.2%, Schlumberger’s stock will likely close between $69.02 and $64.92 in the next seven days. Schlumberger’s stock price was $66.97 on July 3, 2017. Next, we’ll discuss short interest in Schlumberger stock.


More From Market Realist