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What Are the Odds of SM Energy Beating Its 2Q16 Earnings?

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SM Energy’s earnings trend

In 1Q16, excluding the one-time items, SM Energy (SM) reported a loss of $0.83 per share, $0.03 better than the consensus for a loss of $0.86 per share. Its revenues fell by ~2% year-over-year to ~$359 million.

As seen in the above chart, SM Energy reported much lower EPS (earnings per share) in 2015 due to lower realized crude oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) prices. In 3Q15, SM Energy saw its adjusted earnings turn negative for the first time since 2009.

Since 2013, SM Energy has beaten its earnings expectations ~38% of the time.

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Other upstream players

Since 2013, upstream players Occidental Petroleum (OXY), EOG Resources (EOG), and Range Resources (RRC) have beaten their earnings expectations ~54%, ~92%, and ~54% of the time, respectively.

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