Upstream Companies’ Moving Averages and Analysts’ Estimates



Moving averages

The 100-day moving averages of upstream companies’ stocks have shown strong resistance. The ten large-cap upstream companies are trading 19.4% below their 100-day moving averages. Only Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) managed to trade 3.2% below its 100-day moving average. As of January 28, EQT was trading 3.8% above its 100-day moving average. Currently, EQT trades 2.6% below its 100-day moving average.

This is close to the averages compared to other upstream companies. For example, Marathon Oil (MRO) is trading 43% below its 100-day moving average. It’s the highest among upstream companies. In contrast, Anadarko Petroleum (APC) and Devon Energy (DVN) trade 27% and 33% below their respective 100-day moving averages.

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Anadarko Petroleum’s 52-week highs were around $94.5 during April 2015. Since then, the stock has been on a continuous downtrend. Anadarko operates with a production mix of 51.2% in natural gas and 34.6% in crude oil. Also, the stock is trading near the psychological support level of $30. However, the support price of $30 stood firm in the subprime crisis in 2008 and in 2010.

Wall Street analysts’ consensus estimates

The above table shows the moving averages and forward target prices of several US-based (SPY) upstream companies. Wall Street analysts’ consensus estimates suggest a 38.4% upside for these upstream companies. You can compare that to the 42.2% upside estimates for large-cap refineries. Over the next 12 months, EQT and Cabot Oil & Gas could rise by as much as 25% and 11.5%, respectively, from the current levels.

Wall Street analysts’ estimates for three other major upstream companies over the next 12 months are as follows:

  • Anadarko Petroleum could see a 45% rise.
  • EOG Resources (EOG) could rise by 20%.
  • Apache (APA) could see an 18% rise.

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