Will Yesterday’s Falling Sugar Prices Lead to a Sharp Turnaround?


Jan. 26 2016, Updated 7:40 a.m. ET

Corn price trends

March sugar futures prices fell sharply for the second consecutive trading day yesterday (January 20). Prices might continue to test their support level. Contract volume rose 63.1%, and open interest fell slightly, 0.39%. Prices continue to trade below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages of $14.73 and $14.84 per pound. They’re trading above the 100-day moving average of $14.03.

The chart above shows that prices could continue in the range of $13.90–$14.70 per pound in the near term.

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Price drivers

Speculative technical selling and profit booking dragged sugar prices down on January 20.

The US dollar depreciated 0.06%. As a lower US dollar isn’t favorable for sugar imports in the country, the depreciation kept sugar prices high. A report from Commerzbank on lower production and stronger demand supported price sentiment for sugar in the near term.

Stock impact

The decline in sugar prices should hurt sugar producing companies as their stock values fall. But Cosan (CZZ) rose 2.6% yesterday after two consecutive days of 13% falls. Food businesses use sugar and benefit from lower sugar prices. Hershey (HSY) rose 0.38% for the second trading day in a row with yesterday’s falling sugar prices. On the other hand, Campbell Soup Company (CPB) and General Mills (GIS) fell 1.6% and 0.42%, losing the previous day’s gains. The iPath MSCI India Index ETN (INP) fell for the third consecutive day, by 1.2% on January 20. It’s fallen 4.9% over three days.


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