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Could Speculation of South American Supply Push Corn Prices Down?

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Corn prices rise

December futures contracts for corn, traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (or CBOT), rose by 0.56% and settled at $3.62 per bushel on November 17, 2015.

Corn futures prices rose on account of technical and commercial buying due to unfavorable weather changes. The Teucrium Corn ETF (CORN) rose slightly by 0.23% on November 17, 2015, with the rise in CBOT.

Unfavorable weather projections have been realized, with rain in most US regions. Rain in the US Midwest further delayed harvest activities during the week. The unfavorable weather conditions supported technical and commercial buying on November 17, 2015. At the end of the day, corn futures prices had risen by 0.56%.

Analysts are hopeful for the harvest’s completion even though rain is anticipated for more than half of the week ending November 22, 2015. Completion of the harvest could support the supply sentiment toward the end of the week.

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Corn exports slowed during the first ten weeks of the 2015–2016 marketing year. However, the current level of corn prices works out to be one of the lowest export prices for US corn. Analysts project that this may support corn export sentiments in the next six to eight weeks. It may also provide a boost to US corn to compete with South American corn supply.

The Argentinian election results will be released on November 22, 2015. Producers from Argentina have held their supplies in anticipation of positive policy changes for exports. The next two USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) Weekly Export Sales Reports could be relevant from this point of view.

Stock discussion

The shares of Ingredion (INGR), Tyson Foods (TSN), CHS (CHSCP), and Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) fell by 0.57%, 0.57%, 0.32%, and 2.7%, respectively, on November 17, 2015. The PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF (DBA) also rose slightly by 0.10% on November 17, 2015.

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