NYMEX-traded natural gas futures contracts for August delivery fell from the key resistance level of $2.90 MMBtu (British thermal units) on July 16, 2015. Gas prices have been fluctuating in a narrow trading range of $2.70 to $2.90 per MMBtu for a month. Record inventory and warm weather estimates are influencing natural gas prices.
Key support and resistance
Bearish sentiments could drag natural gas prices lower. The next support for natural gas prices is at $2.50 per MMBtu. Prices tested this mark in April 2015. Record stockpile and oversupply concerns could drag natural gas prices lower. In contrast, warm weather estimates and demand from power plants could support natural gas prices. The resistance for gas prices is at $3 per MMBtu. Prices last tested this level in May 2015.
Natural gas price chart prices could fluctuate between $2.50 MMBtu and $3 MMBtu in the short term. Natural gas prices could average around $3.25 per MMBtu in 2H 2015 as per market surveys.
ETFs like the VelocityShares 3X Long Natural Gas ETN (UGAZ) and the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) are affected by natural gas prices’ long-term downtrend. They also negatively affect upstream players like Exco Resources (XCO), Magnum Hunter Resources (MHR), and Contango (MCF). These companies account for 2.57% of the SPDR Oil and Gas ETF (XOP). The natural gas production mix of these stocks is greater than 59% of their total production.