API stockpile estimates
The API (American Petroleum Institute) is scheduled to release its weekly oil stockpile report on June 30, 2015. Last week, API data showed that crude oil stocks fell by 3.2 MMbbls (million barrels) for the week ending June 19, 2015. The API data, along with crude oil stocks, release gasoline and distillates stock estimates every Tuesday. The API inventory report releases ahead of the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) weekly US crude oil stockpile report. Traders closely watch API data as a precursor to EIA data.
The EIA releases a weekly crude oil, gasoline, and distillates stock report every Wednesday. This report is scheduled to release on July 1, 2015. Last week, government data showed that oil stocks fell by 4.9 MMbbls to 463 MMbbls for the week ending June 19, 2015.
Market surveys suggest that crude oil stocks are expected to fall by 2.075 MMbbls for the week ending June 26, 2015. Over the same period, distillates stocks are expected rise by 1.65 MMbbls—compared to a rise of 1.84 MMbbls for the week ending June 19, 2015. Likewise, weekly gasoline stocks are expected to rise by 1.3 MMbbls for the week ending June 26, 2015—compared to a rise of 0.680 MMbbls for the week ending June 19, 2015.
The consensus of the falling crude oil stockpile will support crude oil prices. In contrast, estimates refined products’ rising stocks will continue to put pressure on crude oil prices. Even the strong dollar will add pressure to crude oil prices in the oversupplied crude oil market.
Oil and gas companies like Newfield Exploration (NFX), Kosmos Energy (KOS), and Chevron (CVX) are negatively impacted by falling crude oil prices. Combined, they account for 4.91% of the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE). These companies have a crude oil production mix that’s more than 53% of their total production. Lower crude oil prices also impact energy ETFs like XLE and the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP).