The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index is a weekly sentiment index that covers three critical variables:
- Respondents’ perception of the state of the economy
- Respondents’ personal finance evaluation
- Respondents’ judgment of the timing of purchasing goods and services
The index is a random data sample from 1,000 people collected through telephone interviews using relatively straightforward questions that ask whether the state of the economy, personal finances, and time to buy goods and services is excellent, good, not so good, or poor.
Since the index started in 1985, it has averaged 42. Neutrality isn’t necessarily 50. The highest reading the index ever recorded was +66.3 in early 2000. The index bottomed at 23 in 2009.
Note that the index was recently rescaled from -50 to 50 to a scale of 0 to 100.
Views of the economy are still highly negative
The index finished the week at 40.7, a big increase from the prior week. The report on balance is negative. This isn’t surprising, given that the index itself is below 50.
Perceptions of the economy are highly negative, at 31% positive versus 69% negative. That said, it improved markedly over the prior week. The perception of whether it’s a good time to buy is also highly negative, at 35% positive versus 65% negative. As to personal finances, the index ticked up to 56% positive versus 44% negative.
So when you ask consumers about the world around them, they tend to be more negative. But when you ask about their own personal situations, they’re more neutral.
Implications for homebuilders
Consumer sentiment is a critical factor in risk taking. In fact, KB Home (KBH) in a recent earnings conference call cited consumer confidence as a more important variable than interest rates.
Rising real estate prices drove increases in orders, but order growth has been slipping for builders. Student loan debt remains a problem for the first-time homebuyer. But even the first-time homebuyer seems to be reappearing. Given that the cost of renting is higher than the cost of owning, a change in sentiment should cause a big spike in new orders.
Housing starts have been highly depressed since the real estate collapse. Even a marginal increase in demand should drive homebuilders forward. Specific homebuilder stocks that will be positively affected by changes in consumer sentiment include Lennar (LEN), PulteGroup (PHM), D.R. Horton (DHI), and Toll Brothers (TOL).
You can also invest in the sector via an exchange-traded fund (or ETF) like the Standard and Poors depositary receipt (or SPDR) S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB).