Time to Rethink the Role of Emerging Market Bonds
Emerging markets have done well this year and should continue to attract investor interest around the globe. Latin America is leading year-to-date.
The Barbell strategy involves putting half your portfolio in defensive, low-beta sectors or assets and the other half in aggressive, high-beta sectors or assets.
Emerging market debt can be a great source of income potential in a diversified portfolio, provided you can manage it during a period of extreme volatility.
You have two options when it comes to investing in emerging market bonds—hard currency bonds and local bonds.
Investors are stepping back into emerging market bonds after removing billions of dollars from emerging markets in 2016.
Strong investor interest in emerging market debt has continued despite adverse political and economic issues in some countries.
According to a recent BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment strategy report, emerging markets are expected to grow at a modest pace of 4.7% in 2017.
Negative bond yields in Japan and low Fed funds rates in the United States and the Eurozone were one reason emerging market bonds performed well in 2016.
Since the US presidential election, emerging markets have bounced back as though the election never happened.
Many investors look to the stock performance in January to predict results for the whole year.
Opportunistic tax-loss selling, $46 billion in maturities and coupon payments, and constrained supplies in municipal bonds all point to one thing: the January Effect may be a “slam dunk.”
Treasuries recorded a spike in their yields last year due to the sell-off after Donald Trump’s victory.
The January Effect is a rise in asset prices often (but not always) observed throughout the month of January. There are a number of theories as to why this happens.
Another factor that impacts small-cap stocks’ performance is the yield curve. The yield curve has remained on the flatter side since the recession.
Small caps strengthened throughout the year due to expectations of fewer rate hikes in 2016 by the Fed. The markets expected more rate hikes.
The demand for emerging market bonds improved when fear of rate hikes abated in 2016. Fundamentals are still favorable for emerging debt markets.
A strengthening dollar impacts the emerging bond market’s performance. Uncertainty started revolving around the performance of emerging market debt.
Donald Trump’s surprise presidential win and the rising dollar called for a sell-off in most emerging market currencies like Mexico and Turkey.
In the emerging market bond space (PCY) (EMLC), high-yield bonds and local currency bonds outperformed hard currency sovereign bonds.
Trump’s unexpected presidential victory caused short-term uncertainty about markets and policies. His win reinforced a reflationary theme in global markets.