Will Natural Gas Hit $3.2 Next Week?
On July 20, 2017, natural gas active futures’ implied volatility was 32.3%, which was 3% below their 15-day moving average.
On July 20, 2017, US crude oil futures’ implied volatility was 27.2%, which was 4.2% below its 15-day moving average.
Between July 13 and July 20, 2017, the Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) was unchanged, and it was the underperformer among major energy sub-sector ETFs.
In the week ended July 20, 2017, the S&P 500 Index (SPY) had a correlation of 83.2% with US crude oil active futures.
On August 20, 2017, US crude oil (USO)(USL)(DBO) September futures settled at $46.92 per barrel.
Aggregate financing, which measures liquidity, reflects the total funds provided by a financial system to its nonfinancial sectors and households.
Since China’s automobile industry is the second-largest consumer of steel after the real estate sector, it’s important to track its developments.
Real estate directly impacts 40 other sectors in China. It’s important for iron ore investors to track China’s real estate growth.
Chinese steel production has been hitting one record after another. This renewed vigor in the Chinese steel industry is due to higher steel prices.
China’s (FXI) (MCHI) steel production is hitting one record after another. The country’s June 2017 production hit a monthly record of 73.2 million tons of steel.
It’s important for investors to keep track of China’s iron ore import data because they provide a clue regarding the demand patterns for imported iron ore among Chinese mills and traders.
China’s iron ore port inventory shows the steelmaking commodity’s (GNR) demand and supply balance. It also measures the imbalance between supply and steel mill demand.
Iron ore exports from major ports in Brazil (EWZ) and Australia reflect the supply side of the iron ore equation.
Rio Tinto (RIO) released its operational update for 1H17 on July 18, 2017. Rio’s iron ore shipments fell 6% year-over-year (or YoY) to 77.7 million tons in 2Q17.
While iron ore prices have rebounded recently, analysts are still skeptical about the long term. Morgan Stanley has reduced its iron ore price forecast for 3Q17 by 23% to $50 per ton.
After reaching a peak of $95 per ton in February 2017, despite market participants’ concerns about higher supply and weakening demand, iron ore prices hit a low of $53 per ton in June.
On July 21, crude oil opened the day lower and traded with weakness in the early hours. The market sentiment is mixed this week amid supply concerns.
On July 21, 2017, Baker Hughes will release its weekly US natural gas rig count report. The US natural gas rig count fell by two to 187 rigs on July 7–14.
The EIA estimates that monthly US natural gas consumption fell by 19.8 Bcf per day or 23.8% to 63.5 Bcf per day in April 2017—compared to March 2017.
The EIA estimates that monthly US dry natural gas production fell by 2.37 Bcf per day, or 3.2%, to 71.6 Bcf per day in April 2017—compared to March 2017.