Where Natural Gas Prices Could Go Next Week
On September 21, 2017, natural gas implied volatility was 35.1%, or 5.1% above the 15-day average.
On September 21, 2017, US crude oil’s implied volatility was 24.8%, or 4.6% below its 15-day average.
XOP, which had the highest correlation with oil prices, rose 3.3% in the trailing week and outperformed other energy sub-sector ETFs.
In the trailing week, the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index rose 0.9%. The FTSE 100 Index fell 0.4%, while the CAC 40 Index rose 0.8% during this time period.
The US refinery utilization rate jumped to 83.2% in the week ended September 15, 2017, compared with 77.7% one week previously.
Most precious metals saw a down day on Wednesday, September 20, after the US Federal Reserve gave its latest verdict on interest rates and balance sheet unraveling.
As of September 20, 2017, Sibanye, Agnico Gold, Silver Wheaton, and Barrick Gold had implied volatilities of 66.4%, 27.0%, 30.8%, and 25.4%, respectively.
Among the four miners that we’re analyzing, AngloGold has the lowest correlation to gold YTD, while Kinross has the highest correlation.
Later in the day on September 20, after rising gold prices fell on the US Federal Reserve’s indication of one more interest rate hike in 2017.
On September 20, gold futures for October expiry closed 0.44% higher than the previous day, ending at $1,312.5 per ounce.
Aegent Energy Advisors estimates that US natural gas (DGAZ) (GASL) (BOIL) prices won’t exceed $3.06 per MMBtu between September 2017 and October 2017.
PointLogic estimates that weekly US natural gas consumption rose 11.3% to 57.9 Bcf per day on September 14–20, 2017.
PointLogic estimates that weekly US dry natural gas production rose by 0.6 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day to 74.5 Bcf per day on September 14–20, 2017.
On September 22, 2017, Baker Hughes will release its US natural gas rig count report. The US natural gas rig count fell by one to 186 on September 8–15.
The EIA reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 97 Bcf to 3,408 Bcf on September 8–15, 2017. Inventories rose 2.9% week-over-week.
October US natural gas futures contracts rose 0.4% to $2.96 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) in electronic trading at 2:05 AM EST on September 22.
October US natural gas (UNG) (FCG) futures contracts fell 4.5% to $2.95 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) on September 21, 2017.
At 6:40 AM EST on September 22, the WTI crude oil futures contracts for November 2017 delivery were trading at $50.62 per barrel—a gain of ~0.14%.
On September 20, 2017, natural gas (FCG) (BOIL) October 2018 futures closed $0.10 below its October 2017 futures.
In the week ended September 8, 2017, natural gas inventories rose by 91 Bcf (billion cubic feet) to 3,311 Bcf, which was 11 Bcf above the rise expected by the market.