But if I knew how to manage my portfolio safer and smarter than most hedge fund managers, I could realistically grow my wealth.
The survey drills down into orders and shipments, employment, inventories, and prices. It also includes a special survey that changes each month.
When you ask consumers about the world around them, they tend to be more negative. But when you ask about their own personal situation, they’re more neutral.
Industrial production is a good top-down macroeconomic indicator. It helps forecast the labor market, final demand, consumption, and inflation.
Business inventories are important economic drivers, especially when they build. Historically, recessions start with a buildup of inventory.
Manufacturing production numbers are released monthly by the Federal Reserve. The numbers are contained in the industrial production and capacity utilization statistical release.
New York manufacturing activity The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is put out by the New York Fed. It covers a wide range of economic indicators—from general business conditions to new…
The MBA Purchase Index decreased 0.7% last week despite a strong bond market rally. We’re entering the seasonally slow period for the real estate sector that pretty much lasts as long as football season.
In the latest survey, 56% of respondents said the economy is on the wrong track—a decrease of 3% from last month and a decrease of 1% over the past year.
Pros are more bullish on house prices In the latest survey, consumers expect home prices to increase by 2.2% over the next 12 months. This is up 10 basis points month-over-month…
In fact, wages have been stagnant for quite some time, especially for the middle class. Home price appreciation and home equity extraction masked the economic effects of stagnant wages.
Over the past several months, mortgage rates and the ten-year bond yield stopped correlating. Last week, this trend broke as the two variables lined up once again. We’ll have to wait to see if it continues.
Consumer sentiment is a critical factor in risk taking. In fact, in a recent earnings conference call, KB Home (KBH) cited consumer confidence as a more important variable than interest rates.
Consumption is the major driver of the U.S. economy. It accounts for 70% of GDP. Consumption has been relatively subdued since the recession began, as Americans have boosted their savings rate and spent only on essentials.
Another implication of the September FOMC minutes is that the economy’s “speed limit” has been lowered. Thus, inflation will be an issue sooner than people would like.
This labor shortage could be considered to be a blessing in disguise, as higher employment and higher wages will drive consumer confidence and growth.
Homebuilders are especially cyclical and so will line up with manufacturing activity. Even some of the commercial real estate investment trusts will correlate with this activity.
Many originators are now beginning to originate stated-income loans—not to be confused with liar loans of the sub-prime days.
The use of federal construction dollars to increase demand in the economy has been an issue of tremendous debate.
Following the collapse, we saw starts average ~687,000 units per year with a low of under half a million. That’s a tremendously depressed level.