How a Trump Presidency Could Impact US Markets
Trump recently attacked Fed rates and even talked about trying to gain more control over the independent body.
We’re nearing the end of August—many investment professionals will be watching markets from the beach. The second revision to Q2 GDP will be out on Friday.
The NAHB Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which measures homebuilder sentiment, peaked at 71 during the height of the housing bubble in late 2005. It bottomed out at 8 in early 2009.
Overall, building permits for single-family residences fell from 738,000 to 711,000 in July. Multifamily permits rose from 386,000 to 411,000.
In July, the Northeast saw housing starts jump from 116,000 to 134,000, while starts rose from 171,000 to 175,000 in the Midwest.
The U.S. Census Bureau published the July housing data on August 16. The release was well above market forecasts. Housing starts rose by 2.1% to 1,211,000.
The CPI (consumer price inflation), published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, remained unchanged in July. The energy index fell by 1.6% in July.
In June, the total foreclosure inventory fell 26% from a year ago to 375,000 homes. This works out to be about 1% of all homes with mortgages.
Planned job cuts rose 19% in July compared to June. However, they fell 57% YoY (year-over-year) in July.
Average hourly earnings rose $0.08 month-over-month in July 2016 and 2.6% year-over-year to $25.61.
In July 2016, non-farm payrolls rose by 255,000. Non-farm payrolls easily topped Wall Street analysts’ estimate of 185,000.
There isn’t much in the way of market-moving economic data this week. One of the highlights will be the JOLTS job openings data on Wednesday.
In the quarter ending June 30, 2016, public construction spending fell to 1.5% on a month-over-month basis.
In June, housing starts rose to an annualized rate of 1.2 million from 1.1 million the month before. Building permits rose from 1.1 million to 1.2 million, as well.
In June, the share of existing home sales attributable to the first-time homebuyer was 33%—up 3 percentage points from May.
In June 2016, private construction fell 0.6%, and public construction fell 0.6% month-over-month.
In the quarter ending June 30, construction spending as a percentage of GDP slipped to 6.1%. Over the past 50 years, the average has been closer to 8.4%.
In June 2016, existing home sales reached an annualized ~5.6 million. In May, existing home sales were ~5.5 million.
The NAHB Wells Fargo Housing Market Index peaked at 71 during the height of the housing bubble in late 2005.
Overall, permits for single-family residences rose slightly from 731,000 to 738,000. Multifamily permits rose from 389,000 to 405,000.