Key Factors behind Toyota’s Dismal Wall Street Performance
In 2016, Toyota (TM) underperformed the broader market and delivered a return of about -4.7%.
Currently, Honda is trading at $30.79 and is hovering right above an important support level of $30.70.
On March 21, Tesla stock (TSLA) traded at $250.68 with 0.3% gains for the month so far.
On March 22, 2017, Ferrari’s stock price was $67.09 and had strongly bullish underlying momentum.
According to Harley-Davidson’s (HOG) 4Q16 presentation, it plans to launch 50 new motorcycles over the next five years.
Analysts are still estimating GM’s 1Q17 earnings to be strong, with an ~14.3% increase in its earnings per share on a year-over-year basis.
Ford (F) stock has been underperforming the broader market and its peers such as General Motors (GM), Fiat Chrysler (FCAU), and Tesla (TSLA) for the last three quarters.
On March 20, 2017, Ford (F) stock breached a significant support level near $12.40 on a closing basis.
Through March 21, 2017, Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) has lost about 2.5%. This performance beat its peers General Motors (GM) and Ford (F), which have fallen 6.2% and 6.5%, respectively, in March so far.
In this series, we’ll review the 1Q17 performance of the major auto stocks. We’ll also explore the major developments that took place in the auto industry during the quarter.
After its dismal 4Q16 earnings release on January 31, 2017, most Wall Street analysts maintained a neutral view on Harley-Davidson.
Last year, Ferrari outperformed mainstream automakers and the broader market on Wall Street. Its stock delivered an impressive return of over 21%.
As of March 16, Toyota’s consensus 12-month target price was $119.99 on the NYSE. It reflects an upside potential of ~6% from its market price of $113.24.
In 2016, Fiat Chrysler managed to post stronger profit margins due to solid truck sales figures. Its stock has risen ~50% in the last year as of March 16.
As of March 16, 2017, General Motors’ consensus 12-month target price was $39.75. It reflects an upside potential of ~7.20% from its market price of $37.08.
On March 16, 2017, Tesla’s 12-month consensus target price was $249.76, which is ~4.7% lower than its market price of $262.05.
According to the latest data compiled by Reuters, 35% of the analysts covering Ford gave the stock “buy” recommendations, while 56% recommended a “hold.”
So far in 2017, US auto sales remained weak on a YoY basis. Most mainstream automakers’ stocks are largely outperforming the broader market (SPY).
So far in 2017, WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil prices have lost ~11.2%. In February, WTI crude oil futures traded on a firm note.
In a high capital-intensive industry like automobiles, it’s important for investors to pay attention to indicators that impact automakers’ profitability.