Real Estate Market Hot in the West, Cold in the Northeast
Home prices in the Pacific and Mountain states have outperformed prices in the rest of the country over the past two years.
May’s 5.6% year-over-year gain in home prices has put the FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) House Price Index at about 4% above its April 2007 level.
In May 2016, the FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) reported that house prices rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 5.6% year-over-year.
The ten-year bond yield rose by 2 basis points to 1.6% for the week ending July 22, 2016. Ginnie Mae TBAs fell by 6 ticks to close at 104 12/32.
For the week ending July 22, 2016, Fannie Mae TBAs ended at 103 16/32—down 4 ticks for the week. The ten-year bond yield rose by 2 basis points to 1.6%.
Lately, mortgage rates and bond yields have shown a weak correlation. Treasury yields have fallen over the past month, while mortgage rates have been steady.
After closing the previous week at 1.6%, bond yields—as tracked by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)—rose by 2 basis points to 1.6% last week.
Housing starts and building permits came in around 1.2 million—towards the top end of a narrow range over the past year.
The FOMC meets on July 26 and 27. Two weeks ago, it was a non-event. The market has been raising its estimates for the federal funds rate by the end of 2016.
Consumers were “calling the bottom” and expect modest home price appreciation. They expect home price appreciation to rise by 2% over the next 12 months.
Consumers are way more bullish about rental prices than they are about house prices. Rental price inflation has been picking up.
The number of people who think that the economy is on the right track fell 6% over the past year to reach 33%. The number was down 3% month-over-month.
There are two basic types of state foreclosure laws—judicial and non-judicial. In non-judicial states, foreclosures are handled through a streamlined process.
The federal government has taken numerous steps to reduce foreclosures. It started with loan modification programs.
Ginnie Mae and the TBA market The Fannie Mae TBA (to-be-announced) market represents the usual conforming loan—the plain Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac 30-year mortgage. When a mortgage banker makes…
When the Fed talks about buying MBS (mortgage-backed securities), it’s referring to the TBA (to-be-announced) market.
Mortgage rates are the lifeblood of the housing market. The Fed’s plan to help the housing market started when it pushed rates lower to allow people to refinance.
Basis for long-term interest rates Ten-year bond yields influence everything from mortgage rates to corporate debt. Now, they’re the benchmark for long-term US interest rates. Some investors might remember when the…
Mortgage servicing rights valuation multiples are extremely low at the moment. Servicers like Ocwen and Walter have seen their stock prices decimated.
In June 2016, the labor force participation rate rose to 62.7%—up 10 basis points from May. The labor force rose from 158.5 million to 158.9 million.