But if I knew how to manage my portfolio safer and smarter than most hedge fund managers, I could realistically grow my wealth.
The MBA reported that the share of refinance applications increased to 66.4%. This caught many by surprise, but it could be a pleasant surprise for the originators.
The easy money from the 2012 refinance wave has been made. Now, originators must focus on the purchase business, which is a more difficult area.
Mortgage rates spent most of the summer stuck around 4.25% and only recently acknowledged the strong bond market rally. The pattern of lagging the bond market seems to be continuing.
In March 2013, the Fed was forecasting that 2015 inflation would be ~1.5%–2%. By the December 2014 meeting, it decreased that number to 1%–1.6%.
At the March 2013 meeting, the Fed was forecasting that the 2015 GDP growth would be 3%–3.6%. At the last meeting, that dropped to 2.6%–3%.
At the March 2013 meeting, the Fed was forecasting that 2015 unemployment would be 6.7%–7%. Now, the Fed is forecasting that unemployment will be 5.2%–5.3%.
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve ended its September FOMC meeting. It changed its language regarding interest rate normalization going forward.
Capacity utilization is a good top-down macroeconomic indicator. It helps forecast the labor market, final demand, consumption, and inflation. Capacity utilization was 80.1% in November.
The performance of tenants is a critical driver of vacancy rates and returns. While mall REITs aren’t directly exposed to consumer spending, consumer spending is still a critical driver.
At the end of the day, consumers don’t start spending after recessions because they want to. They do it because they have to.
Ginnie Mae and the to-be-announced (or TBA) market The Fannie Mae to-be-announced (or TBA) market represents the usual conforming loan, the plain Fannie Mae 30-year mortgage. Meanwhile, Ginnie Mae TBAs…
The Fannie Mae 3.5% TBA started the week at 103 14/32 and picked up 29 ticks to close at 104 11/32. Market participants may also be forecasting less volatility in interest rates.
The ten-year bond yield is the basis for long-term interest rates The ten-year bond influences everything from mortgage rates to corporate debt. It’s now the benchmark for long-term US interest…
Last week was relatively data-light, so there wasn’t much in the economic data to move markets. That said, markets did move quite a bit as oil continues to drop in price.
We’ll have some critical real estate-related data points this week, with housing starts and the NAHB Homebuilding Index. The spring selling season is just around the corner.
Persistent unemployment has been the Achilles’ heel of this recovery. While it seems like the big layoffs are largely finished, firms are still reluctant to aggressively add staff.
The share of refinance applications increased to 63.9%. This bond market rally has caught many by surprise, but it could be a pleasant surprise for the originators, who have had a horrendous year.
Since the bubble burst, mortgage origination has been almost exclusively government-driven. The US government bears 50% of the credit risk of the entire US mortgage market.
This series breaks down the different indices and helps you learn what insights you can glean from them. Mortgage banking has become a lot more competitive as rates have increased.