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Where Is Andeavor Headed in 4Q17?

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Part 7
Where Is Andeavor Headed in 4Q17? PART 7 OF 15

What Andeavor’s Moving Averages Indicate

Andeavor’s moving averages in 9M17

In 1Q17, Andeavor (ANDV) stock fell, but its 50-day moving average remained above its 200-day moving average. The decline in ANDV stock in 1Q17 extended into the early days of the second quarter, which could have been in anticipation of its earnings.

Andeavor’s 50-day moving average broke slightly below its 200-day moving average. However, as Andeavor announced its 1Q17 numbers, which surpassed its estimates, the stock rose.

Andeavor’s 50-day moving average again crossed above its 200-day moving average. Andeavor completed the Western Refining acquisition, which further boosted the stock.

What Andeavor’s Moving Averages Indicate

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Andeavor stock continued its uptrend in 3Q17. This rise was in expectation of its 2Q17 numbers, which would include one month of combined operations of both entities (Tesoro and Western Refining, now known as Andeavor).

Hurricane Harvey led to skyrocketed refining margins, which would benefit ANDV. Andeavor’s 50-day moving average rose, widening the gap between itself and the 200-day moving average.

Andeavor’s moving averages in 4Q17

Andeavor stock continued its uptrend in 4Q17. This was in anticipation of improved 3Q17 numbers, which would include a full quarter of the combined operations. However, Andeavor’s earnings missed estimates, leading to a decline in the stock.

Andeavor’s 50-day moving average remained above its 200-day moving average. Currently, Andeavor’s 50-day moving average trades 13.0% above its 200-day moving average.

Thus, the weakness in ANDV stock after its earnings didn’t have a significant impact on ANDV’s 50-day moving average, which trades significantly above its 200-day moving average.

Peers’ moving averages

Like ANDV, HollyFrontier (HFC), PBF Energy (PBF), and Delek US Holdings (DK) saw their 50-day moving averages trade 26.9%, 22.5%, and 8.7%, respectively, above their 200-day moving averages.

As the broader market pointer, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s (DIA) 50-day moving average trades ~6.6% above its 200-day moving average.

In the next article, we’ll look at Andeavor’s stock price forecast range for the period ending December 29, 2017, based on its implied volatility.

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