What’s the Estimate for Phillips 66 Stock before Its Earnings?
Implied volatility in Phillips 66
In this part of the series, we’ll look at Phillips 66’s stock price forecast based on its implied volatility for a 14-day period before its earnings release. Phillips 66 is expected to post its 3Q17 earnings on October 27, 2017.
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Implied volatility in Phillips 66 has fallen from 17.9% on July 3, 2017, to the current level of 15.9%. PSX stock rose 13.3% in the same period.
Likely price range for Phillips 66 stock for the 14-day period ending October 27
The price range for Phillips 66 stock is estimated by considering the company’s implied volatility of 15.9% and assuming a normal distribution of prices (bell curve model) and a standard deviation of one, which suggests a probability of 68.2%. Phillips 66 stock could close between $97.40 and $91.50 per share in the next 14 days, ending on October 27, 2017, its 3Q17 earnings release day.
Implied volatility of peers
Implied volatility in Andeavor (ANDV) and Valero Energy (VLO) fell 3.0% and 1.7%, respectively, over July 3, 2017, to the current levels of 21.0% and 19.9%, respectively. However, implied volatility in Delek US Holdings (DK) rose 1.8% over July 3 to the current level of 38.6%. ANDV and VLO stocks rose 10.9% and 14.8%, respectively, in the stated period. But DK stock has fallen 0.40% since July 3, 2017.
The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) have also noted falls in their implied volatilities by 0.10% and 1.9%, respectively, since July 3, 2017. The implied volatilities for DIA and SPY are 8.2% and 8.0%, respectively. During the same period since July 3, 2017, DIA and SPY saw a rise in their values of 6.6% and 5.3%, respectively.
In the next part of this series, we’ll look at analysts’ ratings for Phillips 66 stock before its 3Q17 earnings.