X
<

MPC, VLO, ANDV, PSX: How 3Q17 Treated Refiners

PART:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Part 3
MPC, VLO, ANDV, PSX: How 3Q17 Treated Refiners PART 3 OF 8

MPC, ANDV, VLO, PSX: Refining Stocks’ Price Forecast

Refining stocks’ implied volatility in 3Q17

Refining stocks’ implied volatility fell in 3Q17. Andeavor’s (ANDV) and Marathon Petroleum’s (MPC) fell more than Valero Energy’s (VLO) and Phillips 66’s (PSX).

MPC, ANDV, VLO, PSX: Refining Stocks’ Price Forecast

Interested in ANDV? Don't miss the next report.

Receive e-mail alerts for new research on ANDV

Success! You are now receiving e-mail alerts for new research. A temporary password for your new Market Realist account has been sent to your e-mail address.

Success! has been added to your Ticker Alerts.

Success! has been added to your Ticker Alerts. Subscriptions can be managed in your user profile.

Implied volatility in ANDV and MPC fell 3.4% and 3.6%, respectively, from the beginning of the quarter to 21% and 23% at the end of the quarter. VLO’s and PSX’s implied volatility fell 0.2% and 1.2%, respectively, to 21% and 16%. MPC has the highest implied volatility. MPC, ANDV, PSX, and VLO stock rose ~7%, ~10%, ~11%, and ~14%, respectively. 

The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s (DIA) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s (SPY) implied volatility fell 0.5% and 2.9%, respectively, in 3Q17. At the end of the quarter, DIA’s and SPY’s implied volatility stood at 7.7% and 7.1%, respectively. DIA and SPY stock rose 5.0% and 3.9%, respectively.

Forecast price range for refining stocks

Considering refining stocks’ current implied volatility and assuming a normal distribution of prices, standard deviation of one, and probability of 68.2%, we can infer that MPC could have highest percentage upside or downside in the three months ending December 31. MPC could close between $62.50 and $50 per share. Contrarily, PSX could have the lowest upside or downside, closing between $100.60 and $86 per share. ANDV could close between $116.10 and $94.60 per share, and VLO could close between $85.50 and $69.10 per share. In the next part, we’ll review analysts’ ratings for refining stocks.

X

Please select a profession that best describes you: