MPC, ANDV, VLO, PSX: Refining Stocks’ Price Forecast
Refining stocks’ implied volatility in 3Q17
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Implied volatility in ANDV and MPC fell 3.4% and 3.6%, respectively, from the beginning of the quarter to 21% and 23% at the end of the quarter. VLO’s and PSX’s implied volatility fell 0.2% and 1.2%, respectively, to 21% and 16%. MPC has the highest implied volatility. MPC, ANDV, PSX, and VLO stock rose ~7%, ~10%, ~11%, and ~14%, respectively.
The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s (DIA) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s (SPY) implied volatility fell 0.5% and 2.9%, respectively, in 3Q17. At the end of the quarter, DIA’s and SPY’s implied volatility stood at 7.7% and 7.1%, respectively. DIA and SPY stock rose 5.0% and 3.9%, respectively.
Forecast price range for refining stocks
Considering refining stocks’ current implied volatility and assuming a normal distribution of prices, standard deviation of one, and probability of 68.2%, we can infer that MPC could have highest percentage upside or downside in the three months ending December 31. MPC could close between $62.50 and $50 per share. Contrarily, PSX could have the lowest upside or downside, closing between $100.60 and $86 per share. ANDV could close between $116.10 and $94.60 per share, and VLO could close between $85.50 and $69.10 per share. In the next part, we’ll review analysts’ ratings for refining stocks.