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Is the Uptrend in ConocoPhillips Stock Just Getting Started?

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Part 3
Is the Uptrend in ConocoPhillips Stock Just Getting Started? PART 3 OF 4

Where ConocoPhillips Stock Could Settle This Week

ConocoPhillips’s implied volatility

As of September 29, 2017, ConocoPhillips (COP) had an implied volatility of ~21.5%—lower than its implied volatility of ~25.47% at the end of 2Q17. In the past week, ConocoPhillips’s implied volatility has risen from ~21.20% to ~21.5% due to an increase of ~2% in its stock price.

Where ConocoPhillips Stock Could Settle This Week

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Price range forecast

Based on ConocoPhillips’s implied volatility of ~21.5%, assuming the normal distribution of prices, 365 days in a year, and standard deviation of one, its stock could close between $51.54 and $48.56 in the next seven calendar days. Its stock will stay in this range 68% of the time. On September 29, ConocoPhillips’s stock price closed at $50.05.

Peers’ price range forecasts

As of September 27, 2017, EOG Resources (EOG) has an implied volatility of ~20.8%. EOG Resources stock is expected to close between $99.52 and $93.96 in the next seven calendar days. On September 29, its stock price closed at $96.74.

Southwestern Energy (SWN) has an implied volatility of ~51.5%. Its stock is expected to close between $6.56 and $5.66 in the next seven calendar days. On September 29, Southwestern Energy’s stock price closed at $6.11.

Based on the inputs used to calculate the price range, there’s a 68% probability that these stocks will close in their range for the given period.

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