Assessing Whether SWN Could Beat Its 3Q17 Earnings Estimate
SWN’s odds of beating earnings estimates
In the last four quarters, Southwestern Energy (SWN) beat its consensus EPS (earnings per share) estimate in 1Q17. However, SWN also missed its consensus EPS estimates in 3Q16, 4Q16, and 2Q17.
In the last four quarters, SWN beat the consensus EPS estimates 25% of the time and missed its consensus EPS estimates 75% of the time.
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What was SWN’s stock price reaction to 2Q17 earnings?
Southwestern Energy (SWN) announced its 2Q17 earnings on August 3, 2017, after the market closed. Southwestern Energy reported an adjusted profit of $0.08 per share, $0.07 worse than the Wall Street analyst consensus for a profit of $0.15 per share.
SWN’s 2Q17 earnings were $0.17 higher per share when compared with its 2Q16 loss of $0.09 per share. When compared sequentially, SWN’s 2Q17 earnings were lower by $0.10 per share compared with its 1Q17 profit of $0.18 per share.
Following the earnings release, worse-than-expected earnings saw Southwestern Energy’s stock price increase from $5.22 to $5.68 in one month.
3Q16 post-earnings price action
Southwestern Energy announced its 3Q16 earnings on October 20, 2016, after the market closed. In 3Q16, excluding the one-time items, SWN missed the consensus EPS estimate by $0.02.
Following the earnings release, better-than-expected earnings saw Southwestern Energy’s stock price fall ~26% in two weeks.
Other oil and gas producers
In the last four quarters, upstream players Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), Devon Energy (DVN), and Murphy Oil (MUR) have beaten their earnings expectations ~75%, ~100%, and ~75% of the time, respectively.