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Reading ConocoPhillips's Winning Performance Last Week

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Part 3
Reading ConocoPhillips's Winning Performance Last Week PART 3 OF 4

Where ConocoPhillips Stock Could Settle This Week

COP’s implied volatility

As of September 15, 2017, ConocoPhillips (COP) had an implied volatility of ~18.5%, which is lower than its implied volatility of ~25.5% at the end of 2Q17. Since the start of 3Q17, COP’s stock price has been trading in the narrow range of $42.24–$46.51, which has caused a significant fall in its implied volatility since the start of 3Q17.

Where ConocoPhillips Stock Could Settle This Week

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COP’s price range forecast

Based on ConocoPhillips’s implied volatility of ~18.5% and assuming a normal distribution of prices (over 365 days, with a standard deviation of one), COP stock could close between $47.70 and $45.35 over the next seven calendar days.

The stock could stay in this range 68% of the time. On September 15, COP’s stock price closed at $46.51.

Peer price range forecasts

As of September 15, 2017, Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) has an implied volatility of ~25.5%, which means that PXD stock is expected to close between $141.77 and $132.09 in the next seven calendar days. On September 15, PXD’s stock price closed at $136.93.

Peer Southwestern Energy (SWN) has an implied volatility of ~50.5%, which means that SWN stock is expected to close between $6.20 and $5.38 in the next seven calendar days. On September 15, SWN’s stock price closed at $5.79.

Based on the inputs used in the calculation of price range, there is a 68% probability that these stocks will close within their estimated ranges during the given period.

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