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Has ConocoPhillips Stock Started a New Uptrend?

PART:
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Part 3
Has ConocoPhillips Stock Started a New Uptrend? PART 3 OF 4

Where ConocoPhillips Stock Could Settle This Week

COP’s implied volatility

As of September 22, 2017, ConocoPhillips (COP) had an implied volatility of ~21.20%, which is lower than its implied volatility of ~25.47% at the end of 2Q17. Over the past week, COP’s implied volatility has increased from ~18.51% to ~21.20%, due to the steep rise in its stock price during the same period.

Where ConocoPhillips Stock Could Settle This Week

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COP’s price range forecast

Based on ConocoPhillips’s implied volatility of ~21.20% and assuming a normal distribution of prices (calculating 365 days in a year and using a standard deviation of one), the stock could likely close between $50.52 and $47.64 in the next seven calendar days.

COP stock will likely stay in this range 68% of the time. On September 22, COP stock closed at $49.08.

Peer forecasts

On September 22, EOG Resources (EOG) had an implied volatility of ~19.6%, which means that EOG stock is expected to close between $97.12 and $91.58 in the next seven calendar days. On September 22, EOG stock closed at $94.55.

Peer Southwestern Energy (SWN) has an implied volatility of ~51.5%, which means that SWN stock is expected to close between $6.45 and $5.59 in the next seven calendar days. On September 22, SWN stock closed at $6.02.

Remember, based on the inputs used in the calculation of these price ranges, there’s a 68% probability that these stocks will close in the ranges given for the seven-day period.

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