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Has ConocoPhillips Stock Started a New Uptrend?

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Part 2
Has ConocoPhillips Stock Started a New Uptrend? PART 2 OF 4

What Really Drove ConocoPhillips Stock Last Week?

ConocoPhillips’s correlations last week

ConocoPhillips (COP) stock rose ~6% last week (ended September 22, 2017), while crude oil rose ~2%. But natural gas and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) traded flat. It appears that COP got a clear boost from rising crude oil prices.

Here, we’ll study COP’s correlation coefficient with crude oil last week and over the last month. We’ll also look at the extent to which COP’s stock price followed natural gas prices and the S&P 500 Index over these same periods.

What Really Drove ConocoPhillips Stock Last Week?

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For the week ending September 22, COP stock showed a correlation of ~69% with crude oil (USO) (SCO). This means that movements in crude oil had a high influence on the stock.

But COP’s correlations with natural gas (UNG) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) were around -78% and -41%, respectively, during the same period. This means that movements in natural gas and the S&P 500 Index had negligible influences on COP’s rise last week.

COP stock has shown correlations of ~91%, ~61%, and ~86% with crude oil (USO), natural gas (UNG), and SPY, respectively, over the past month.

COP’s peers

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) showed a correlation of ~78% with crude oil last week, rising ~3% due to the rise in crude prices. OXY showed a correlation of around -78% and -47% with natural gas and SPY, respectively, last week. Notably, OXY’s production mix contains ~75% crude oil, and so OXY has a high correlation with crude oil prices.

To know more about the correlations of various upstream stocks with energy commodities, check out Market Realist’s series How Correlations with Energy Commodities Impact Upstream Stocks.

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