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Has Pioneer Natural Resources Stock Started a New Uptrend?

PART:
1 2 3 4 5
Part 3
Has Pioneer Natural Resources Stock Started a New Uptrend? PART 3 OF 5

What Pioneer Natural Resources’ Implied Volatility Suggests

Pioneer Natural Resources’ implied volatility

As of September 22, 2017, Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) had an implied volatility of ~24.3%, which is lower than its implied volatility of ~28.0% at the end of 2Q17. Also, in the last week, PXD saw a decrease in its implied volatility of ~25.5% on September 15. In the last week, PXD’s stock price rose ~5% steadily every day of the week, which resulted in a fall in its implied volatility.

What Pioneer Natural Resources’ Implied Volatility Suggests

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PXD’s price range forecast

Based on Pioneer Natural Resources’ implied volatility of ~24.3%, assuming a normal distribution of prices, 365 days in a year, and standard deviation of one, its stock is expected to close between $148.85 and $139.17 in the next seven calendar days. PXD’s stock will stay in this range 68% of the time. On September 22, PXD’s stock price closed at $144.01.

Peer price range forecasts

As of September 22, 2017, EOG Resources (EOG) has an implied volatility of ~19.6%, which means EOG stock is expected to close between $97.12 and $91.58 in the next seven calendar days. On September 22, EOG’s stock price closed at $94.55.

Marathon Oil (MRO), another PXD peer, has an implied volatility of ~30.8%, which means MRO stock is expected to close between $13.34 and $12.24 in the next seven calendar days. On September 22, MRO’s stock price closed at $12.79.

Based on the inputs used in the calculation of price range, there is a 68% probability that the stocks will close in their range for the given period.

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